On the ill-defined notion of the Milankovitch Theory and its influence on the development of the orbital theory of the paleoclimate

Аннотация

The unique situation around the best-known and universally recognized version of the orbital theory of the paleoclimate (OTP), the Milankovitch theory, is analyzed. The problem lies in the extreme diversity in how the essence of this theory is understood both by various authors and by the same scholars in different periods of their activity. The most impressive fact is that five authors, laureates of the Milutin Milankovitch Medal, are not only at variance in the understanding of its essence but also raise substantial objections relative to a number of its principal theses or even cast doubts on the verity of the paleoclimatic part of the theory, which nevertheless is declared practically universally as the basis of the OTP. This situation hinders the development of a correct, mathematically strict OTP of the Pleistocene, the creation of which will promote a better understanding of the mechanism of the Earth’s “climatic machine” and, consequently, more reliable forecasts of anthropogenic forcing on the natural environment.