Vol 54, No 2 (2018)

A network of stations for subsoil radon monitoring is in operation at the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky geodynamic testing area and is aimed at detection of strong earthquake precursors. At all stations, measurements are carried out using gas-discharge counters located at different depths within aeration zones of soft sediments. The volume activity of radon (VA Rn) is monitored at the most equipped station Paratunka (PRT) at three measurement sites located across the regional fault. The radon flux density (RFD) is measured from the surface. The article reviews responses in the dynamics of VA Rn and RFD from the surface at the PRT station prior to the Kamchatka earthquakes with magnitudes М_W > 5 that occurred over the period of 2011–2016. The revealed RFD seasonal cycle is likely related to the seasonal variations in air temperature. The postseismic effect caused by the strongest deep Okhotsk earthquake (May 24, 2013, М_W = 8.3) is detected in the RFD data. The behavior of VA Rn dynamics during time periods of the strong earthquakes is different. The results confirm the existing opinion on the formation of narrowly localized zones of Rn runoff to the atmosphere owing to both vertical and horizontal irregularities in the top layer of soil, which can react differently to changes in the geoenvironment stress–strain. On the basis of the real-time radon monitoring data, the authors have issued partially successful short-term prediction for several earthquakes. The results of this work confirm the opinion of many researchers that radon monitoring can be used in the short-term prediction of strong earthquakes.

The paper addresses the collection and analysis of new data on aftershocks that occurred within 20 days of the main shock of the December 7, 1988, Spitak earthquake, Mw = 6.8. The data were used to improve the location of aftershock hypocenters and magnitudes. Available data concerning this 20-day period were the least reliable in terms of completeness, representativeness, and the accuracy of hypocenter location and, in particular, estimation of energy classes and magnitudes. New data were retrieved from the records and bulletins of the seismic stations of the regional and global networks. Hypocenter parameters were determined by means of the minimization of wave travel-time residuals and subsequent double-difference hypocenter relocation. Digital records of the Obninsk and Arti seismic stations (Δ = 15°–18°) and five more distant stations (Δ = 34°–53°) were used to more accurately estimate the surface-wave magnitude of the main shock and strongest aftershock. The aftershock catalog of the Spitak earthquake was substantially revised. First, the previous hypocenter locations (Aref’ev et al., 1991) were improved using the double-difference method; second, new data were retrieved from the bulletins of Caucasian seismic stations. The minimum magnitude of completeness (M_c = 1.9) of the new catalog for the first 20 days after the main shock (when there were no epicentral observations) is the same as that for the period from December 7, 1988, to December 31, 1989. The new catalog contains information on 2090 aftershocks with magnitude M = 1.9 and more for the period from December 7, 1988, to December 31, 1989. The double-difference method allowed the location of the epicenters of clustered earthquakes to be reliably estimated with a longitude error of no more than 4.6 km, a latitude error of 4 km, and a depth error of 5 km. The new spatial distribution of the aftershock hypocenters is better correlated with the tectonic setting than the old data. The new catalog can be used to assess seismic hazard after strong earthquakes in the region.

The ultimate strain value for rocks in aggregate with their other physicomechanical characteristics plays a substantial role when solving different problems related to the bearing capacity and behavior of soils. These include determination of the maximum displacement, velocity, and acceleration values of soils during earthquakes and estimation of the potential strain energy accumulated in a medium during strong earthquake preparation. The latter parameter is also key in predicting earthquakes from the ultimate strain of rocks. The paper describes a technique developed by the author for determining the ultimate strain of soil columns under natural conditions from their relative slope on the surface after a strong earthquake. The empirical dependences of the ultimate strain of rocks on earthquake magnitude, relative slip, rupture length, and the seismic moment are obtained by analyzing their values calculated by the proposed method for 44 strong earthquakes with magnitudes of 5.6–8.5. A comparative analysis of the ultimate strain values obtained by other researchers by geodesic triangulation is performed.

The traces of strong earthquakes in the territory of Fennoscandia have been recorded by many scientists already for several decades. The seismogenerating paleostructures, such as postglacial discontinuities in the crystalline basement accompanied by a complex of deformations in the loose deposits are found in the territories of Sweden, Norway, and Finland that border Russia, in which case the spatial correlation of the postglacial faults and modern seismicity is established. Such structures have not yet been discovered in Russia, though the traces of strong earthquakes in the form of rock deformations and postglacial sediments are found by different groups of researchers over the whole territory of Eastern Fennoscandia. The obtained data make it possible to identify the linear zones of concentration of paleoearthquakes (seismic lineaments) that also occur in the modern relief and modern seismicity. However, the problem of postglacial seismicity remains a subject for discussions concerning the localization of the foci, their genesis, and regime. A remaining issue is also distinguishing between seismogenic, cryogenic, and glaciodislocations. The important questions that need to be solved include parametrization of paleoearthquakes and determination of their nature, structures, age, and magnitude. One of the key segments is the area of Vottovaara Mountain in Middle Karelia, which is a part of the Vottovaara–Girvas seismic lineament, where seismic dislocations were found earlier. For studying this probable paleo-focal zone in detail, remote sensing data, field geological and geomorphological observations, and computational methods for estimating the peak values of paleoearthquake mass velocities are used. The typical zones of development of different types of seismic deformations are revealed. A potential seismogenerating fault related to the northwest-striking Vottovaara–Girvas seismic lineament is found; its probable shear kinematics is determined from the ratio of pulse displacements of rock blocks on different wings of the fault. The sequence of a few strong events which occurred here in the interglacial and postglacial periods is identified. The effects of interaction between the seismic activity and the glacial exaration on the formation of the modern image of the focal zone are established. Using alternative approaches to estimating shaking intensity by the macroseismic INQUA scale, the scale by F.F. Aptikayev, and the nomogram by M.V. Rodkin, the intensity of the recent strong Early Holocene seismic event, which occurred here at 8.9 ka according to A.D. Lukashov, is determined. According to the agreed estimates, the intensity reached 9–10 points at a probable magnitude of 7.5–8. This work carried out using a number of new approaches developed by the authors makes it possible to characterize paleoseismicity in more detail.

The characteristics of seismicity in the near vicinity of five large water reservoirs and three large waterfalls from different regions of the Earth are considered. It is found that in some cases induced seismicity manifests itself during the filling of reservoirs at quite large depths: in the lower crust and even in the upper mantle. There is negative correlation between the maximum magnitudes Мmax of the earthquakes recorded near water reservoirs and waterfalls and the water discharge in these objects (V_p). The largest values of М_max are characteristic of earthquakes that occurred near Sarez Lake (Tajikistan) and the Koyna Reservoir (India), which have the lowest V_p; in contrast, the smallest magnitudes are reported for earthquakes in the areas of the Khone Falls (Laos) and Niagara Falls (United States, Canada), where there are no large artificial water reservoirs, but huge water discharge takes place. The available data indicate that permanent vibration caused by falling water reduces the level of seismicity.