Analysis of Historical Sources on Earthquakes in Crimea

Abstract

The paper considers the results of an archeoseismological approach to studying the seismic history of Crimea based on recent publications, devoted to reconstructing strong seismic events in the 15th–18th centuries. The reliability of the references involved is analyzed. Reconstruction of the timeline of earthquakes in Crimea is related to two problems: determination of doubtless evidence of a strong earthquake and dating of such an event. The first problem can be solved mostly by careful field studies using the developed technique and with representative historical, literary, and folkloric material, whereas dating of events encounters considerable difficulties. The main difficulties and limitations of this generally progressive research field are shown, which are related to both objective and subjective factors. Objective factors include, in particular, large uncertainty in establishing the chronology of seismic events using not only folkloric, but also historical data. The efficient cooperation of historians and seismologists is complicated by many unresolved issues in the reconstruction of historic events in Crimea, which deprives seismologists of a reliable basis and forces historians to rely on seismological conclusions that are not always valid. Subjective factors are related to lack of scrutiny when using sources and hasty conclusions. In addition, data on geological and man-made destruction in historical sources are used insufficiently. Despite doubts on the reliability of chronologically dating earthquakes, successful application of the archeoseismological method in Crimea is confirmed by solid evidence of strong seismicity. Obviously, to solve the dating reliability problem, further research and more complete reconstruction of Crimea’s history are needed.