Email this article 
Comparison of the single-step and multistep approaches to prediction of the solar activity index
- Authors: Kisielius V.1,2, Illarionov E.A.1,2, Stepanov R.A.2, Kuzanyan K.M.2,3
-
Affiliations:
- Lomonosov Moscow State University
- Institute of Continuous Media Mechanics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
- Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation of the Russian Academy of Sciences
- Issue: Vol 89, No 7 (2025)
- Pages: 1143-1148
- Section: Magnetohydrodynamics
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/0367-6765/article/view/352359
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S0367676525070218
- ID: 352359
Cite item
Open Access
Access granted
Subscription Access
Abstract
We compared three different approaches for forecasting a time series of the solar activity index: iterations of a single-step model, an independent single-step forecast for each subsequent month, and a single multi-step forecast for the entire period. In each approach we use a neural network model as the forecasting model with the aid of a theoretical series of solutions obtained from the physical model.
About the authors
V. Kisielius
Lomonosov Moscow State University; Institute of Continuous Media Mechanics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of SciencesMoscow, Russia; Perm, Russia
E. A. Illarionov
Lomonosov Moscow State University; Institute of Continuous Media Mechanics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of SciencesMoscow, Russia; Perm, Russia
R. A. Stepanov
Institute of Continuous Media Mechanics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of SciencesPerm, Russia
K. M. Kuzanyan
Institute of Continuous Media Mechanics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Email: kuzanyan@gmail.com
Perm, Russia; Moscow, Russia
References
- Clette F., Svalgaard L., Vaquero J.M., Cliver E.W. // Space Sci. Rev. 2014. V. 186. P. 35.
- Frick P., Sokoloff D., Stepnov R. et al. // Month. Notes Royal Astron. Soc. 2020. V. 491. No. 4. P. 5572.
- Nandy D. // Solar Physics. 2021. V. 256. No. 3. Art. No. 54.
- Petrovoy K. // Living Rev. Solar Phys. 2020. V. 17. Art. No. 2.
- Safiullin N., Kleeorin N., Porshnev S. et al. // J. Plasma Phys. 2018. V. 84. No. 3. Art. No. 735840306.
- Cheng H., Tan P.-N., Gao J., Scripps J. // Lect. Notes Comput. Sci. 2006. V. 3918. P. 765.
- Kingma D.P., Ba J. // arXiv: 1412.6980. 2015.
- Милецкий Е.В., Иванов В.Г. // Изв. РАН. Сер. физ. 2006. Т. 70. № 10. С. 1443
- Наговицын Ю.А. // Письма в Астрон. журн. 1997. Т. 23. С. 851.
Supplementary files
