Automation of the Manufacturing Industry in China: Prospects and Risks

Cover Page

Cite item

Full Text

Open Access Open Access
Restricted Access Access granted
Restricted Access Subscription Access

Abstract

The paper examines the current state, prospects, and risks of the automation of China’s manufacturing industry in the context of demographic changes and the country’s transition to a new development model based on intensive growth factors. The transition to a new growth model and demographic changes have led to a shift in the factors of China’s competitiveness. Nonetheless, China continues to be the “world’s factory”, which implies the accelerating pace of industrial automation. Over the past 10 years, China has been the largest consumer of industrial robots in the world and has actively increased its own production. The country has surpassed the United States and reached the level of developed countries in terms of robot intensity. Despite the rapid growth in the adoption of industrial robots, an assessment of the structural changes in employment and the pace of automation in manufacturing up to 2030, based on available data, suggests that robotization is unlikely to pose significant risks to employment yet. Moreover, the pace of automation may prove insufficient to address the shortage of workers in the manufacturing sector.

About the authors

V. A Lemutov

Institute of Asian and African Studies, Lomonosov Moscow State University

Email: vlemutov@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8856-9925
Applicant, International Economic Relations Department Moscow, Russia

References

  1. China’s Domestic Transformation in a Global Context (China Update Series). Song L., Garnaut R., Fang C., Johnston L. et al. Canberra: ANU Press, 2015.
  2. Мельянцев В.А. Успехи, проблемы и противоречия современного экономического роста в развитых и развивающихся странах. Восток (Oriens). 2015. № 5. С. 80–102. Meliantsev V.A. 2015. Successes, problems and contradictions of modern economic growth in developed and developing countries. Vostok (Oriens). № 5. Pp. 80–102. (In Russ.)
  3. Cheng H., Jia R., Li D., Li H. 2019. The Rise of Robots in China. Journal of Economic Perspectives, № 33 (2), Pp. 71–88.
  4. Müller C. 2023. World Robotics 2023 – Industrial Robots. IFR Statistical Department, VDMA Services GmbH. Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
  5. Dang Y. China eyes robot manufacturing as way to fuel economic growth. South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3231715/china-eyes-robot-manufacturing-way-fuel-economicgrowth (accessed 12.01.2024)
  6. Acemoglu D., Restrepo P. 2020. Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets. Journal of Political Economy. Vol. 128. № 6. Pp. 2188–2244.
  7. Autor D.H. 2015. Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 2015. Vol. 29. № 3. Pp. 3–30.
  8. Manyika J. et al. A Future That Works: Automation, Employment, And Productivity. McKinsey & Company. 2017. https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/Digital%20Disruption/Harnessing%20automation%20for%20a%20future%20that%20works/MGI-A-future-that-works-Executive-summary.ashx (accessed 14.01.2024)
  9. Lambert J., Cone E. How Robots Change the World. Oxford Economics. 2019. https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/how-robots-change-the-world/ (accessed 14.01.2024)
  10. Acemoglu D. 2000. Technical Change, Inequality, and The Labor Market. National Bureau of Economic Research. Working Paper No. 7800.
  11. Kirton D. Insight: Younger Chinese are spurning factory jobs that power the economy. Reuters. 2022. https://reuters.com/world/china/younger-chinese-are-spurning-factory-jobs-that-power-economy-2022-11-21/ (accessed 15.01.2024)
  12. Chen X., Pei G., Song Z., Zilibotti F. 2023. Tertiarization Like China. Annual Review of Economics. № 15. Pp. 485–512. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-071122-030026
  13. Lin X. Almost 20% of China’s Workforce Is in Manufacturing, Study Shows. Yicai Global. 2022. https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/almost-20-of-china-workforce-is-in-manufacturing-study-shows (accessed 15.01. 2024)
  14. Акимов А.В. Влияние робототехники и трудосберегающих технологий на демографические процессы: тренды и сценарии. Демографическое обозрение. 2017. Т. 4. № 2. С. 92–108. Akimov A.V. 2017. How robotics and labor-saving technologies impact population change: trends and scenarios. Demographic review. Vol. 4. № 2. Pp. 92–108. Moscow. (In Russ.)
  15. Moravec H. 1988. Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence. Cambridge, Massachusets. 214 pp.
  16. Sheehan M. China’s AI Regulations and How They Get Made. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 2023. https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/07/10/china-s-ai-regulations-and-how-they-get-made-pub-90117 (accessed 23.01.2024)

Copyright (c) 2024 Russian Academy of Sciences

This website uses cookies

You consent to our cookies if you continue to use our website.

About Cookies