Simulating Runoff Regime in a Glaciated High-Mountainous Basin: A Case Study of the Baksan River (Caucasus, Russia)

E. D. Kornilova; Корнилова Е. Д.; I. N. Krylenko; Крыленко И. Н.; E. P. Rets; Рец Е. П.; Yu. G. Motovilov; Мотовилов Ю. Г.; F. A. Atabieva; Атабиева Ф. А.; I. I. Kuchmenova; Кучменова И. И.

doi:10.31857/S0321059623040144

Simulating Runoff Regime in a Glaciated High-Mountainous Basin: A Case Study of the Baksan River (Caucasus, Russia)

Авторлар: Kornilova E.¹^,2, Krylenko I.¹^,2, Rets E.², Motovilov Y.², Atabieva F.³, Kuchmenova I.³
Мекемелер:
1. Moscow State University, 119991, Moscow, Russia
2. Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, 119333, Moscow, Russia
3. High-Mountain Geophysical Institute, Roshydromet, 360030, Nalchik, KBR, Russia
Шығарылым: Том 50, № 4 (2023)
Беттер: 477-484
Бөлім: МАТЕМАТИЧЕСКИЕ МОДЕЛИ В РЕШЕНИИ ЗАДАЧ ГИДРОЛОГИИ СУШИ
URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/0321-0596/article/view/134873
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S0321059623040144
EDN: https://elibrary.ru/QJUHXK
ID: 134873

Дәйексөз келтіру

Толық мәтін

Ашық рұқсат
Рұқсат жабық

Рұқсат берілді
Рұқсат жабық

Тек жазылушылар үшін

Аннотация
Авторлар туралы
Әдебиет тізімі
Қосымша файлдар
Статистика

Аннотация

The water resources of the North Caucasus depend mostly on the state of glaciers, which have been intensely losing their mass in the recent decades against the background of climate changes. The deglaciation leads not only to a decrease in the glacier runoff of mountain rivers, but also to changes in the annual distribution of runoff. The focus of this study is the adaptation of ECOMAG software complex to simulating river runoff in the Baksan River basin based on data on the relief and underlying surface of the drainage basin (soil, vegetation) and daily data on the surface air temperature, air saturation deficit, and precipitation. The calibration and validation of the model and the statistical estimate of calculation efficiency were based on the data on water discharges in the Baksan River over 2000–2017. The developed model of runoff formation in the Baksan River basin was used to carry out numerical experiments for assessing the sensitivity of runoff characteristics to glacier area variations. Depending on the rate of deglaciation process, the runoff of the Baksan River can drop by 10–30% because of a decrease in its glacial component, and the maximal water discharges can drop by 10–15%.

Негізгі сөздер

mountain hydrology, river flow simulation, runoff formation model, ECOMAG, North Caucasus

Әдебиет тізімі

Золотарев Е.А., Харьковец Е.Г. Эволюция оледенения Эльбруса после малого ледникового периода // Лед и снег. 2012. № 2 (118). С. 15–22.
Морейдо В.М., Калугин А.С. Оценка возможных изменений водного режима реки Селенги в XXI в. на основе модели формирования стока // Вод. ресурсы. 2017. Т. 44. № 3. С. 275–284.
Патент РФ 2 020 622 193. База данных для регионального гидрологического моделирования на территории Российской Федерации. В.М. Морейдо, А.Н. Амербаев. 2020. Бюл. № 11.
Погорелов А.В. Снежный покров Большого Кавказа: Опыт пространственно-временнóго анализа. М.: Академкнига, 2002. 287 с.
Рыбак Е.А., Рыбак О.О. Анализ региональных особенностей структуры водопользования на Северном Кавказе. Ч. 1. Водообеспеченность и водопотребление // Системы контроля окружающей среды. 2021. № 2. Вып. 44. С. 96–105. https://doi.org/10.33075/2220-5861-2021-2-96-105
Bliss A., Hock R., Radić V. Global response of glacier runoff to twenty-first century climate change // J. Geophys. Res.: Earth Surface. 2014. V. 119 (4). P. 717–730. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JF002931
Chernokulsky A.V., Kozlov F.A., Zolina O.G., Bulygina O.N., Mokhov I.I., Semenov V.A. Observed changes in convective and stratiform precipitation in Northern Eurasia over the last five decades // Environ. Res. Lett. 2019. V. 14. P. 045001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafb82
Duethmann D., Bolch T., Farinotti D. et al. Attribution of streamflow trends in snow and glacier melt-dominated catchments of the Tarim River, Central Asia // Water Resour. Res. 2015. V. 51(6). P. 4727–4750. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016716
Gao X., Ye B., Zhang S., Qiao C., Zhang X. Glacier runoff variation and its influence on river runoff during 1961–2006 in the Tarim River Basin, China // Sci. China Earth Sci. 2010. V. 53 (6). P. 880–891. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-010-0073-4
Gurtz J., Lang H., Verbunt M., Zappa M. The use of hydrological models for the simulation of climate change impacts on mountain hydrology // Global Change and Mountain Regions. 2005. P. 343–354. https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-3508-X_34
Hagg W., Shahgedanova M., Mayer C., Lambrecht A., Popovnin V. A sensitivity study for water availability in the Northern Caucasus based on climate projections // Global and Planetary Change. 2010. V. 73 (3–4). P. 161–171. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.05.005
Huss M., Fischer M. Sensitivity of very small glaciers in the Swiss Alps to future climate change // Frontiers Earth Sci. 2016. V. 4. P. 34. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2016.00034
Kalugin A.S., Motovilov Y.G. Runoff formation model for the amur river basin // Water Resour. 2018. V. 45 (2). P. 149–159. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807818020082
Klok E.J., Jasper K., Roelofsma K.P., Gurtz J., Badoux A. Distributed hydrological modelling of a heavily glaciated Alpine river basin // Hydrol. Sci. J. 2001. V. 46 (4). P. 553–570. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626660109492850
Kornilova E.D., Krylenko I.N., Rets E.P., Motovilov Y.G., Bogachenko E.M., Krylenko I.V., Petrakov D.A. Modeling of Extreme Hydrological Events in the Baksan River Basin, the Central Caucasus, Russia // Hydrology. 2021. V. 8 (1). P. 24. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8010024
Kutuzov S., Lavrentiev I., Smirnov A., Nosenko G., Petrakov D. Volume changes of Elbrus glaciers from 1997 to 2017 // Frontiers Earth Sci. 2019. V. 7. P. 153. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00153
Marzeion B., Hock R., Anderson B.A., Bliss A., Champollion N., Fujita K., Huss M., Immerzeel W.W., Kraaijenbrink P.D., Malles J.H., Maussion F., Radic V., Rounce D.R., Sakai A., Shannon S., Wal R.V., Zekollari H. Partitioning the Uncertainty of Ensemble Projections of Global Glacier Mass Change // Earth’s Future. 2020. V. 8 (7). P. e2019EF001470. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001470
Motovilov Y.G., Gottschalk L., Engeland K., Belokurov A. ECOMAG – Regional Model of Hydrological Cycle. Application to the NOPEX Region. 1999. 88 p.
Motovilov Y., Kalugin A., Gelfan A. An ECOMAG-based Regional Hydrological Model for the Mackenzie River basin // EGU General Assembly Conf. Abstracts. 2017. P. 8064.
Omani N., Srinivasan R., Karthikeyan R., Smith P. Hydrological modeling of highly glacierized basins (Andes, Alps, and Central Asia) // Water. 2017. V. 9 (2). P. 111. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9020111
Rahman K., Maringanti C., Beniston M., Widmer F., Abbaspour K., Lehmann A. Streamflow modeling in a highly managed mountainous glacier watershed using SWAT: the Upper Rhone River watershed case in Switzerland // Water Resour. Management. 2013. V. 27 (2). P. 323–339. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-012-0188-9
Rets E., Kireeva M. Hazardous hydrological processes in mountainous areas under the impact of recent climate change: case study of Terek River basin // IAHS Publ. 2010. V. 340 (2010). P. 126–134.
Rets E.P., Durmanov I.N., Kireeva M.B. Peak runoff in the north Caucasus: Recent trends in magnitude, variation and timing. // Water Resour. 2019. V. 46 (1). P. 56–66. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807819070157
Rets E.P., Durmanov I.N., Kireeva M.B., Smirnov A.M., Popovnin V.V. Past ‘peak water’in the North Caucasus: Deglaciation drives a reduction in glacial runoff impacting summer river runoff and peak discharges // Climatic Change. 2020. V. 163 (4). P. 2135–2151. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02931-y
Rets E.P., Dzhamalov R.G., Kireeva M.B., Frolova N.L., Durmanov I.N., Telegina A.A., Telegina E.A., Grigoriev V.Y. Recent trends of river runoff in the North Caucasus // Geogr. Environ. Sustainability. 2018. V. 11 (3). P. 61–70. https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2018-11-3-61-70
RGI Consortium. Randolph Glacier Inventory-A Dataset of Global Glacier Outlines. Version 6.0. Global Land Ice Measurements from Space. Boulder, CO, USA, 2017.
Shahgedanova M., Hagg W., Zacios M., Popovnin V. An Assessment of the recent past and future climate change, glacier retreat, and runoff in the caucasus region using dynamical and statistical downscaling and HBV-ETH hydrological model // Regional Aspects of Climate-Terrestrial-Hydrologic Interactions in Non-boreal Eastern Europe. 2009. P. 63–72. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2283-7_8
Shahgedanova M., Nosenko G., Kutuzov S., Rototaeva O., Khromova T. Deglaciation of the Caucasus Mountains, Russia / Georgia, in the 21st century observed with ASTER satellite imagery and aerial photography // The Cryosphere. 2014. V. 8 (6). P. 2367–2379. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2367-2014
Singh V., Jain S.K., Shukla S.K. Glacier change and glacier runoff variation in the Himalayan Baspa river basin // J. Hydrol. 2021. V. 593. P. 125918. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125918
Tashilova A., Ashabokov B., Kesheva L., Teunova N. Analysis of climate change in the Caucasus region: End of the 20th–Beginning of the 21st Century // Climate. 2019. V. 7 (11). https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7010011
Tielidze L.G., Wheate R.D. The greater caucasus glacier inventory (Russia, Georgia and Azerbaijan) // The Cryosphere. 2018. V. 12 (1). P. 81–94. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-81-2018
Toropov P.A., Aleshina M.A., Grachev A.M. Large-scale climatic factors driving glacier recession in the Greater Caucasus, 20th–21st century // Int. J. Climatol. 2019. V. 39 (12). P. 4703–4720. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6101