On seismic forecasting, the relationship between seismic and geodynamic processes and the concept of information certainty

The article considers a number of problems solved to one degree or another when forecasting the most dangerous — strongest earthquakes. The most important of them are: the problem of the effectiveness of seismic forecasting based on the idea of scenarios — basic patterns of development of foci of the strongest earthquakes; the problem of monitoring the development of such scenarios based on seismological data; the problem of modeling the relationship between seismic and geodynamic processes that determines these scenarios. To solve the last two problems, the article proposes to use the concepts of the energy and dynamic spectra of seismic activity of the geoenvironment, and the peculiarity of the proposed solution is the introduction of the mathematical concept of information certainty. As an example of using the proposed methods, the article presents a justification for a hypothetical multi-year oscillatory motion during the submersion of the oceanic plate in the Kamchatka subduction zone with a period of about 8.57 years. It is assumed that such oscillations largely determine the most probable periods of occurrence of regional strongest earthquakes.