The Use of Artificial Neural Networks for Forecasting the Electric Demand of Stand-Alone Consumers

Аннотация

The problem of short-term forecasting of electric power demand of stand-alone consumers (small inhabited localities) situated outside centralized power supply areas is considered. The basic approaches to modeling the electric power demand depending on the forecasting time frame and the problems set, as well as the specific features of such modeling, are described. The advantages and disadvantages of the methods used for the short-term forecast of the electric demand are indicated, and difficulties involved in the solution of the problem are outlined. The basic principles of arranging artificial neural networks are set forth; it is also shown that the proposed method is preferable when the input information necessary for prediction is lacking or incomplete. The selection of the parameters that should be included into the list of the input data for modeling the electric power demand of residential areas using artificial neural networks is validated. The structure of a neural network is proposed for solving the problem of modeling the electric power demand of residential areas. The specific features of generation of the training dataset are outlined. The results of test modeling of daily electric demand curves for some settlements of Kamchatka and Yakutia based on known actual electric demand curves are provided. The reliability of the test modeling has been validated. A high value of the deviation of the modeled curve from the reference curve obtained in one of the four reference calculations is explained. The input data and the predicted power demand curves for the rural settlement of Kuokuiskii Nasleg are provided. The power demand curves were modeled for four characteristic days of the year, and they can be used in the future for designing a power supply system for the settlement. To enhance the accuracy of the method, a series of measures based on specific features of a neural network’s functioning are proposed.