Performance of gas turbines in Russia under the changing climatic conditions

Abstract

The impact of the expected climatic changes on the performance of gas turbine units (GTU) as part of the power industry and gas pipeline network in Russia is considered. Long-term estimates of changes in the average annual air temperature throughout the country are made based on the authors’ model. The calculations using the efficiency value of gas turbine units as a function of the ambient air temperature show that climatic changes will significantly deteriorate the operational efficiency of gas-turbine equipment in practically all of Russia’s regions. Based on publicly available statistical data, we assessed the installed capacity of gas-turbine power stations (including combined-cycle power plants) and gas-turbine drive of gas pipeline network. Three development scenarios have been considered for gas turbine power in the national electric power industry, differing in the rates of new facilities’ commissioning. Integrated estimates have been made of the increase in gas consumption in Russia’s gas pipeline network and power industry resulting from climatic changes by 2030 and 2050. It is shown that the total increase in the annual gas consumption associated with a reduction in the efficiency of gas turbine units due to climate warming by 2030 could reach approximately 130000 tce (of which approximately 90000 tce in the gas pipeline network and 40000 tce in the electric power industry) and more than 170000 tce (120000 and 50000 tce, respectively) by 2050. Should more optimistic scenarios be implemented for the development of the electric power industry, this effect will increase 1.5–2.0 times by 2050. Despite high absolute values, the increase in GTU fuel expenditures due to higher ambient temperatures resulting from climate change in Russia will only amount to a fraction of a percent of the total gas consumption and will be two orders of magnitude lower than the savings in space heating.