Assessment of factors affecting the probability of hospitalization of COVID-19 patients with concomitant pathology and development of a prognostic model based on them

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Introduction. Currently, a significant number of patients with COVID-19 require inpatient treatment. At the same time, predictors of hospitalization are still stable, including in persons with concomitant pathology.

Aim. Assessment of factors affecting the probability of hospitalization of COVID-19 patients with concomitant pathology and the development of a prognostic model based on them.

Materials and methods. An observational retrospective cohort study of 74 314 patients with COVID-19 with various comorbidities was carried out in the period from March to November 2020 in the Russian Federation.

Results. Based on 16 factors, including age, gender, place of diagnosis, fever, rhinitis, loss of taste, shortness of breath, concomitant diseases of the cardiovascular, bronchopulmonary system, oncological, endocrine diseases in patients included in the study, a prognostic model was developed. The need for inpatient treatment of patients with COVID-19 and comorbidities was determined.

Conclusion. The constructed predictive model has demonstrated sufficient efficiency to assess the likelihood of hospitalization of patients with COVID-19 by medical specialists.

作者简介

Irina Lizinfeld

National Medical Research Center of Phthisiopulmonology and Infectious Diseases

编辑信件的主要联系方式.
Email: pshenichnaya@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8114-1002

науч. сотр.

俄罗斯联邦, Moscow

Natalia Pshenichcnaya

Central Research Institute of Epidemiology

Email: pshenichnaya@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2570-711X

д-р мед. наук, проф., зам. дир. по клинико-аналитической работе

俄罗斯联邦, Moscow

Liubov Parolina

National Medical Research Center of Phthisiopulmonology and Infectious Diseases

Email: pshenichnaya@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4365-5894

д-р мед. наук, проф., рук. Центра образования

俄罗斯联邦, Moscow

Grigorii Zhuravlev

Central Research Institute of Epidemiology

Email: pshenichnaya@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2467-7000

ординатор 2-го года по специальности «Инфекционные болезни»

俄罗斯联邦, Moscow

Viktor Maleev

Central Research Institute of Epidemiology

Email: pshenichnaya@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5748-178X

акад. РАН, д-р мед. наук, проф., советник дир. по научной работе

俄罗斯联邦, Moscow

Vasiliy Akimkin

Central Research Institute of Epidemiology

Email: pshenichnaya@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4228-9044

акад. РАН, д-р мед. наук, проф., дир.

俄罗斯联邦, Moscow

参考

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2. Fig. 1. Study design.

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3. Fig. 2. Comparison of age categories in the studied patients.

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4. Fig. 3. Comparison of clinical symptoms in the studied patients.

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5. Fig. 4. ROC-curve characterizing hospitalization of patients from the value of the logistic function P.

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