Asteroid Apophis: Evaluating the impact hazards of such bodies

Soon after the discovery of asteroid 99942 Apophis, it was classified as a potentially hazardous object with a high probability of an impact on the Earth in 2029. Although subsequent observations have substantially reduced the probability of a collision, it has not been ruled out; moreover, similar-sized asteroids in orbits intersecting the Earth’s orbit may well be discovered in the near future. We conduct a numerical simulation of an atmospheric passage and an impact on the Earth’s surface of a stony cosmic body with a diameter of 300 m and kinetic energy of about 1000 Mt, which roughly corresponds to the parameters of the asteroid Apophis, at atmospheric entry angles of 90° (vertical stroke), 45°, and 30°. The simulation is performed by solving three-dimensional equations of hydrodynamics and radiative transfer equations in the approximations of radiative heat conduction and volume emission. The following hazards are considered: an air shock wave, ejecta from the crater, thermal radiation, and ionospheric disturbances. Our calculations of the overpressure and wind speed on the Earth’s surface show that the zone of destruction of the weakest structures can be as large as 700–1000 km in diameter; a decrease in the flight path angle to the surface leads to a marked increase in the area affected by the shock wave. The ionospheric disturbances are global in nature and continue for hours: at distances of several thousand kilometers at altitudes of more than 100 km, air density disturbances are tens of percent and the vertical and horizontal velocity components reach hundreds of meters per second. The impact of radiation on objects on the Earth’s surface is estimated by solving the equation of radiative transfer along rays passing through a luminous area. In clear weather, the size of the zone where thermal heating may ignite wood can be as large as 200 km, and the zone of individual fire outbreaks associated with the ignition of flammable materials can be twice as large. In the 100-km central area, which is characterized by very strong thermal damage, there is ignition of structures, roofs, clothes, etc. The human hazardous area increases with the decrease in the trajectory angle, and people may experience thermal effects at distances of up to 250–400 km from the crater.