SPATIO-TEMPORAL MODELLING OF CLIMATIC SUITABILITY FOR THE EXTRINSIC INCUBATION PERIOD OF DIROFILARIA REPENS IN EURASIAREPENS

The zoonotic nematode Dirofilaria (Nochtiella) repens Railliet et Henry, 1911 is expanding its range, with its transmission limited by temperature-dependent development in mosquito vectors. This study models the territorial suitability of Eurasia for completing the parasite’s extrinsic incubation period (EIP), which requires accumulating 130 Dirofilaria development units above +14 °C. Using high-resolution daily temperature data, we calculated the annual number of days suitable for EIP completion. Our findings indicate that the northern climatic boundary for D. repens extends further north than previously known, reaching up to 62° N. Suitability ranges from year-round in southern regions to a limited seasonal window in northern areas, correlating strongly with Köppen-Geiger climate zones. These results provide a critical assessment for predicting range shifts and informing veterinary and public health strategies.