Space Weather Parameters: Modeling and Prediction from the Data of Groundbased Observations of Solar Activity
- Authors: Tlatov A.G.1,2, Shramko A.D.1, Chernov Y.O.1, Strelkov M.A.1, Naga Varun E.2
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Affiliations:
- Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station, Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory
- Kalmyk State University
- Issue: Vol 57, No 7 (2017)
- Pages: 854-858
- Section: Article
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/0016-7932/article/view/156502
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016793217070210
- ID: 156502
Cite item
Abstract
We consider the prospects for developing a forecast system for space weather (SPW) parameters with the use of home facilities for groundbased observations of solar activity. The space weather forecast can be conventionally divided into three components: (i) the prediction of recurrent, slowly changing events connected with the topology of the large-scale magnetic field, (ii) the estimation of fluxes of UV and high-energy radiation, and (iii) the observation of high-speed phenomena, such as solar flares and eruption processes, and the prediction of their consequences at the the Earth’s orbit. At present, to predict recurrent events, data from regular observations of the large-scale field of the Sun by the solar telescope–magnetographs for operative (realtime) prediction (STOP) are effectively used. To estimate high-energy fluxes, to register eruption events, and to estimate their geoefficiency, data from the patrol optical telescope–spectrographs may be used. Patrol telescopes operate in automatic mode and register the processes with an interval of approximately one minute. To detect eruption processes, we propose a method based on the difference between the intensity values in the wings of chromospheric spectral lines. The results of the use of the observational complex of the Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station for the SW forecast are considered in the paper.
About the authors
A. G. Tlatov
Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station, Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory; Kalmyk State University
Author for correspondence.
Email: tlatov@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Kislovodsk, 357700; Elista, 358009
A. D. Shramko
Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station, Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory
Email: tlatov@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Kislovodsk, 357700
Ya. O. Chernov
Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station, Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory
Email: tlatov@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Kislovodsk, 357700
M. A. Strelkov
Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station, Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory
Email: tlatov@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Kislovodsk, 357700
E. Naga Varun
Kalmyk State University
Email: tlatov@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Elista, 358009
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