Flares, ejections, proton events

Abstract

Statistical analysis is performed for the relationship of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and X-ray flares with the fluxes of solar protons with energies >10 and >100 MeV observed near the Earth. The basis for this analysis was the events that took place in 1976–2015, for which there are reliable observations of X-ray flares on GOES satellites and CME observations with SOHO/LASCO coronagraphs. A fairly good correlation has been revealed between the magnitude of proton enhancements and the power and duration of flares, as well as the initial CME speed. The statistics do not give a clear advantage either to CMEs or the flares concerning their relation with proton events, but the characteristics of the flares and ejections complement each other well and are reasonable to use together in the forecast models. Numerical dependences are obtained that allow estimation of the proton fluxes to the Earth expected from solar observations; possibilities for improving the model are discussed.