Risk Assessment for the Elements of Production Equipment

Abstract

A technique of quantitative risk assessment of the functionality of production equipment on the basis of a probabilistic mathematical model is proposed. A method of determining and modeling risks in transitions of the elements of production equipment from a normal state into a state of physical deterioration with the use of an analytic dependence of the magnitude of the predicted service life on accident factors is developed. It is shown that identification and modeling may be used in the assessment of operational risks as a tool necessary for planning and performing repairs of production equipment.