Staging of Occurrence of Seismicity Anomalies before Earthquakes in Kamchatka, Japan and Iceland

Abstract—The paper presents the results of a study showing that anomalies in the seismic regime parameters before earthquakes of various magnitudes occur in stages. The occurrence in stages means the correlation between the times of formation and development of anomalies in various seismic regime parameters. Earthquakes in regions with two general types of tectonics are selected for analysis: in the subduction zone (Kamchatka and Japan) and in the rift zone (Iceland). The selection of regions is primarily based on the availability and quality of regional seismic catalogs. GR b-value and the composite parameter known as the RTL are used as the seismic regime parameters. The detection of spatiotemporal anomalies before the selected earthquakes is based on the known “precursory patterns” of the seismic regime parameters. Comparing the durations of the detected anomalies shows that the anomalies of b-value generally occur earlier than the RTL anomalies. Possible reasons why the anomalies occur in stages are suggested. In the vicinity of the studied earthquakes, a change in the seismogenic rupture concentration parameter within the corresponding seismic cycles is also estimated. Comparing the times at which the detected seismic regime anomalies occur with the values of the seismogenic rupture concentration parameter corresponding to these times shows that the formation of seismic regime anomalies occurs at a stage when the system of seismogenic ruptures accumulated during the seismic cycle has almost reached its critical value.