A Look at the 1988 Spitak Earthquake in the Light of Lessons Learned from the 1948 Ashgabat Catastrophe

This article has been prepared in connection with two sad memorable dates in seismology: the end of 2018 saw the 70th anniversary of the 1948 Ashgabat earthquake and 40 years since the 1988 Spitak earthquake. The former occurred on the night of October 5 to 6, 1948, practically completely destroying Ashgabat, the capital of the Turkmen Soviet Socialist Republic; the latter hit the northern part of Armenia at around noon on December 7, 1988, and also caused enormous destruction. The death tolls of both these earthquakes were several tens of thousands. This article compares the main source parameters of these two earthquakes, their aftershocks, the manifestations in the natural environment, the destruction caused by them, etc. The great similarity between these two compared events in different aspects is concluded. The main lessons of the Ashgabat earthquake are formulated and an attempt is made to consider various aspects of the Spitak earthquake through the prism of these lessons. It is concluded that the main causes of total destruction at the epicenter of the Ashgabat earthquake are similar, even in small details, to those of the 1988 Armenian earthquake. Summarizing, these causes can be defined in both cases as a serious and deliberate underestimation of the seismic hazard (by two or three intensity points), together with a general disregard for the norms of earthquake-resistant design and construction and ignoring the rules for the operation of buildings. In other words, the main lesson of the Ashgabat earthquake was not learned, and this became the main reason for the extent of the Spitak tragedy. Another lesson of the Ashgabat earthquake which is important for seismology (namely, the need to provide the appropriate seismic equipment in earthquake-prone zones, additionally protected in case the room where it is intended to be placed is destroyed), had not been learned. In both cases, the authorities were unprepared for emergency situations. The positive point to be mentioned is how well the lesson of the Ashgabat earthquake was learned with regard to the organization of the Service of Emergency Reports shortly after this earthquake; this service was intended to provide prompt notification about strong earthquakes to the authorities and interested organizations. The scientific aspects of the Ashgabat earthquake, its implications for the development of seismology, and how this knowledge helped in the study of the Spitak earthquake are also considered.