Том 54, № 1 (2018)

On the basis of observational data on daily mean surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents Sea (BS), the characteristics of strong positive and negative winter SAT anomalies in Moscow have been studied in comparison with BS SIC data obtained in 1949–2016. An analysis of surface backward trajectories of air-particle motions has revealed the most probable paths of both cold and warm air invasions into Moscow and located regions that mostly affect strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow. Atmospheric circulation anomalies that cause strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow have been revealed. Changes in the ways of both cold and warm air invasions have been found, as well as an increase in the frequency of blocking anticyclones in 2005–2016 when compared to 1970–1999. The results suggest that a winter SIC decrease in the BS in 2005–2016 affects strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow due to an increase in the frequency of occurrence of blocking anticyclones to the south of and over the BS.

Fourier and wavelet spectra of time series for the ozone column abundance in the atmospheric 0–25 and 25–60 km layers are analyzed from SBUV satellite observations and from numerical simulations based on the RSHU and EMAC models. The analysis uses datasets for three subarctic locations (St. Petersburg, Harestua, and Kiruna) for 2000–2014. The Fourier and wavelet spectra show periodicities in the range from ~10 days to ~10 years and from ~1 day to ~2 years, respectively. The comparison of the spectra shows overall agreement between the observational and modeled datasets. However, the analysis has revealed differences both between the measurements and the models and between the models themselves. The differences primarily concern the Rossby wave period region and the 11-year and semiannual periodicities. Possible reasons are given for the differences between the models and the measurements.

The instability of long-wave disturbances of a geostrophic current with linear velocity shear is studied with allowance for the diffusion of buoyancy. A detailed derivation of the model problem in dimensionless variables is presented, which is used for analyzing the dynamics of disturbances in a vertically bounded layer and for describing the formation of large-scale intrusions in the Arctic basin. The problem is solved numerically based on a high-precision method developed for solving fourth-order differential equations. It is established that there is an eigenvalue in the spectrum of eigenvalues that corresponds to unstable (growing with time) disturbances, which are characterized by a phase velocity exceeding the maximum velocity of the geostrophic flow. A discussion is presented to explain some features of the instability.

Under the influence of global warming, the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean (AO) is expected to reduce with a transition toward a seasonal ice cover by the end of this century. A comparison of climate-model predictions with measurements shows that the actual rate of ice cover decay in the AO is higher than the predicted one. This paper argues that the rapid shrinking of the Arctic summer ice cover is due to its increased seasonality, while seasonal oscillations of the Atlantic origin water temperature create favorable conditions for the formation of negative anomalies in the ice-cover area in winter. The basis for this hypothesis is the fundamental possibility of the activation of positive feedback provided by a specific feature of the seasonal cycle of the inflowing Atlantic origin water and the peaking of temperature in the Nansen Basin in midwinter. The recently accelerated reduction in the summer ice cover in the AO leads to an increased accumulation of heat in the upper ocean layer during the summer season. The extra heat content of the upper ocean layer favors prerequisite conditions for winter thermohaline convection and the transfer of heat from the Atlantic water (AW) layer to the ice cover. This, in turn, contributes to further ice thinning and a decrease in ice concentration, accelerated melting in summer, and a greater accumulation of heat in the ocean by the end of the following summer. An important role is played by the seasonal variability of the temperature of AW, which forms on the border between the North European and Arctic basins. The phase of seasonal oscillation changes while the AW is moving through the Nansen Basin. As a result, the timing of temperature peak shifts from summer to winter, additionally contributing to enhanced ice melting in winter. The formulated theoretical concept is substantiated by a simplified mathematical model and comparison with observations.

The results of simulations performed by the CORE-II scenario using the two Russian OGCMs, INMOM and INMIO, are presented. The models use different coordinate systems in the basic set of primitive equations and different numerical techniques. Both models are used as oceanic components of the INM RAS coupled models. Simulations have shown that reproducing ocean circulation using both models agrees with observations and simulations by other models. In general, the INMOM slightly underestimates the meridional heat transport in the ocean when compared to the INMIO model and climatic estimations. However, the INMIO yields a higher bias in temperature than the INMOM.