Russian Universities Reports. MathematicsRussian Universities Reports. MathematicsВестник российских университетов. Математика2686-96672782-3342Tambov State University - G.R. Derzhavin29498210.20310/2686-9667-2021-26-134-109-120ArticlesСтатьиResearch ArticleNumerical assessment of the spread dynamics of the new coronavirus infection SARS-CoV-2 using multicompartmental models with distributed parametersЧисленная оценка динамики распространения новой коронавирусной инфекции SARS-CoV-2 с использованием многокомпонентных моделей с распределенными параметрамиBurlakovEvgenii O.БурлаковЕвгений Олегович

PhD, Researcher at the Research and Educational Center “Fundamental Mathematical Research”; Researcher

PhD, научный сотрудник научно-образовательного центра «Фундаментальные математические исследования»; научный сотрудник

eb_@bk.ruKayumovFeruzbek B.КаюмовФерузбек Бехзод угли

Master Student, X-Bio Institute

студент магистратуры института X-Bio

f.kayumov97@gmail.comSerovaIrina D.СероваИрина Дмитриевна

Junior Researcher, X-Bio Institute

младший научный сотрудник института X-Bio

irinka_36@mail.ruDerzhavin Tambov State UniversityФГБОУ ВО «Тамбовский государственный университет им. Г.Р. Державина»University of TyumenФГАОУ ВО «Тюменкий государственный университет»0207202126134VOL 26, NO134 (2021)ТОМ 26, №134 (2021)10912003062025Copyright ©; 2025, Burlakov E.O., Kayumov F.B., Serova I.D.Copyright ©; 2025, Бурлаков Е.О., Каюмов Ф.Б., Серова И.Д.2025Burlakov E.O., Kayumov F.B., Serova I.D.Бурлаков Е.О., Каюмов Ф.Б., Серова И.Д.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0https://journals.rcsi.science/2686-9667/article/view/294982

We propose multicompartmental models of infectious diseases dynamics for numerical study of the spread parameters of the new coronavirus infection SARS-CoV-2, which take into account the delay effects associated with the presence of the latent period of the infection, as well as the possibility of an asymptomatic course of the disease. The dynamics of the spread of COVID-19 in the Russian Federation was investigated, using these models with distributed parameters that formalize the interactions of the models’ compartments. The paper provides numerical estimates of the spread dynamics of the new coronavirus infection in various age groups of the population. We also investigate possible consequences of the mask regime and quarantine measures. We obtain an explicit estimate allowing to assess the necessary scope of these measures for the epidemy extinction.

В работе предлагаются многокомпонентные модели динамики инфекционных заболеваний для численного исследования параметров распространения новой коронавирусной инфекции SARS-CoV-2, учитывающие в том числе эффекты запаздывания, связанные с наличием латентного периода инфекции, а также возможность бессимптомного течения заболевания. На основании данных моделей исследуется динамика распространения COVID-19 в РФ с использованием распределенных констант, формализующих взаимодействия компонент в рамках моделей. В работе получены численные оценки динамики распространения новой коронавирусной инфекции в различных возрастных группах населения. Также исследуется влияние «масочного режима» и карантинных мероприятий. В последнем случае получается выражение, позволяющее оценить необходимый масштаб данных мер для затухания эпидемии.

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