Мақаланы E-mail арқылы жіберу Modelling and Forecasting the Evolution of Forest Fire Using Vector Autoregression Processes
- Авторлар: Paramonov AV1
-
Мекемелер:
- Center of Mathematics Research, MSUT «STANKIN»
- Шығарылым: № 2 (2009)
- Беттер: 66-73
- Бөлім: Articles
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/2658-4670/article/view/328956
- ID: 328956
Дәйексөз келтіру
Толық мәтін
Аннотация
The joint sample of daily values of the number of forest fire seats and the complex meteorological
index in Irkutsk region, seasons 1969-1988, is investigated. It appears that the
evolution of forest fire is well described by a vector autoregression process based model. Computer
algorithm of simulation of the future numbers of fire seats is presented. It is shown how
the algorithm can be used for reliable forecasting of the evolution of forest fire up to 2 days
ahead.
index in Irkutsk region, seasons 1969-1988, is investigated. It appears that the
evolution of forest fire is well described by a vector autoregression process based model. Computer
algorithm of simulation of the future numbers of fire seats is presented. It is shown how
the algorithm can be used for reliable forecasting of the evolution of forest fire up to 2 days
ahead.
Авторлар туралы
A Paramonov
Center of Mathematics Research, MSUT «STANKIN»Center of Mathematics Research, MSUT «STANKIN»
Қосымша файлдар
