Modeling Economic Risks in Megacities

At the megacity level, in contrast to the regional or national level, economic risks are multidimensional and interconnected, necessitating the application of mathematical modeling for their identification and assessment. The sustainable development of megacities is impossible without a comprehensive analysis of threats. This article systematizes the main groups of megacity risks: financial-economic, socio-economic, infrastructural and spatial, environmental, resource-related, technological, and digital. Risks do not exist in isolation but form a network of mutual influence; the materialization of one risk increases the probability of others. To formalize the analysis, a probabilistic model based on the Kolmogorov axiomatics is employed to estimate the probability of an event occurrence and the magnitude of its impact. A network-based dynamic model is constructed to describe the mutual influence of risks and their evolution over time, thereby accounting for cascade effects and enabling more accurate forecasting of consequences. The proposed models can be utilized by government bodies and business entities for strategic planning, enhancing investment attractiveness, and minimizing the negative impacts of crisis situations.

economic risks, megacity, mathematical modeling, risk interdependence