The phenomenon of collective foresight as a byproduct of regional strategic planning

Аннотация

The quality of strategies for socioeconomic development in federal subjects are analyzed as well as the opportunities arising due to their availability for regional economic research, in particular for assessing the soundness of optimistic expectations and validity of forecasts for regional economic growth. A forecast of Russia’s economic growth was constructed based on separate regional strategies, and its basic parameters were assessed. The forecast results from regions’ “collective foresight” are verified. The study is based on materials of publicly available strategies of socioeconomic development drawn up by federal subjects for the period up to 2020–2030. The research methods include collection and systematization of forecasts developed as part of the strategies; bringing of the expected results of implementation of strategies to a comparable form and their aggregation by federal districts; comparative analysis of the consolidated forecasts for federal districts with a comprehensive forecast for Russian economic development based on the interregional input–output model. It is found that optimistic expectations in the forecast for gross regional product growth often lead to overstated estimates that do not coordinate with the required investment. The attainability of the predicted estimates for regional economic development was assessed by spatial input–output model, which can take into account resource constraints and effects of interregional and intersectoral interactions on a nationwide scale. Moderate forecasts are more characteristic of subjects with high levels of economic development. The extent of predominance of excessively optimistic projections over balanced forecasts is indicative of interregional competition for investment resources. The extent of a deficit of labor resources can be estimated by comparing the consolidated demographic forecast and the existing Rosstat forecast.