Vol 12, No 4 (2018): SPECIAL ISSUE “FUTURE OF ENERGY”
- Year: 2018
- Articles: 7
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/1995-459X/issue/view/23533
STRATEGIES
New Energy Sources, Technologies, and Systems: The Priority of Social, Climate, and Environmental Issues
Abstract
The introductory article to the special issue “The Future of Energy” is devoted to promising areas of development of the global energy complex, the assessment of their contribution to overcoming global challenges, and ensuring sustainable development. The trends under consideration differ significantly in the rate of evolution. Prospective development trajectories present both opportunities and risks specific to the fuel and energy complex of a particular country. Success in using emerging advantages and leveling threats depends upon a combination of internal and external factors, including the choice of public policy measures and the effectiveness of their implementation.
Forsajt. 2018;12(4):6-9
6-9
Integrated Water-Energy Policy for Sustainable Development
Abstract
Numerous studies indicate a close interdependence between the water and energy industries given that energy production is usually characterized by high water-consuming capacity and that increasing water availability requires significant energy costs. The integration of energy and water policies at the global and national levels is seen as a tool for achieving sustainable development goals. The paper analyzes the opportunities for countries to ensure equal access to clean water and electricity due to such integration. The case studies of India, Ghana, and Morocco illustrate how to achieve success when applying a nexus approach to water and energy policy.This study offers unique contributions to the literature by providing a pioneering analysis of the relationship between global goals for energy and water access and national governments’ abilities to develop synergistic energy and water policies. The proposed approach to integrating energy and water use could be applied throughout the full range of sustainable development goals and will be crucial for the success of countries in their implementation.
Forsajt. 2018;12(4):10-19
10-19
New Technological Revolution and Energy Requirements
Abstract
The new technological revolution is radically changing the shape and development conditions of the world energy industry. The increase in demand for energy, alongside with changes in its structure, require the development of breakthrough technologies and the supply of new energy resources, which is associated with significant costs. To optimize them, a timely anticipation of the expected socio-economic changes and future energy requirements is needed.
This paper analyzes the possible implications of the new technological revolution for the global and domestic energy industries. It evaluates current and prospective trends, such as changes in energy consumption due to growing demand from the service sector and households while reducing the needs of large-scale industry, digitalization, the formation of “mobile”, “portable” energy, and so on.Russia will maintain demand for a centralized energy supply while increasing the demand for distributed generation and cogeneration with the involvement of renewable energy sources, smart grid technologies, and other solutions. The current structure of the national fuel and energy complex is vulnerable to the large-scale electrification of transport and decarbonization of world energy.
Forsajt. 2018;12(4):20-33
20-33
INNOVATION
Energy Consumption of the Russian Road Transportation Sector: Prospects for Inter-Fuel Competition in Terms of Technological Innovation
Abstract
The development of production and consumption technologies for the road transport has led to large scale introduction of alternative energy in this sector. These alternatives to the conventional petroleum fuels include biofuels, electricity, natural gas and synthetic fuels produced from coal and natural gas. However, it is very important to point out, that inter-fuel competition is determined not only by the development of technologies, but also by such parameters as availability, fuel cost, consumer preferences and government legislations, all of which vary greatly across the globe. In other words, the very same technologies can be capable of radically altering the fuel mix in some countries while having little to none impact in the others. The topic of the inter-fuel competition development in the transportation sector holds much importance for Russia, as the country’s fuels mix is almost totally dominated by the petroleum products. The diversification of energy sources for transport may positively influence energy security and domestic fuels market stability; reduce the strain on ecology, especially in major cities; all the while increasing Russian oil and petroleum products export potential. The article presents results of the research for prospects of the developments in Russian transport sector fuel mix. The research was carried out using the tools of economic and mathematical modeling under various scenario assumptions. The analysis has shown that natural gas and, to a lesser extent, electricity hold the best prospects as petroleum products substitutes in the long-term. Their cumulative share in the total energy consumption of the road transport sector has the potential of reaching as high as 26% by 2040. Yet, the extent of substitution largely depends on the government actions for infrastructure development and tax incentives for alternative vehicle owners.
Forsajt. 2018;12(4):35-44
35-44
MASTER CLASS
Applying Global Databases to Foresight for Energy and Land Use: the GCDB method
Abstract
Any economy strongly depends on energy trends, which, as practice shows, are non-linear. This paper proposes an efficient method for predicting these trends. It is based upon a geo-referenced approach and combines a biosphere-energy model with a Global Change Data Base (GCDB). The advantage of the considered method over “pure modeling” lies in its heuristics, dealing with the real historical dynamics of techno-socio-economic systems. Newly emerging qualities and saturation effects will be better portrayed by the proposed method, which includes first and second derivatives. The novelty of the GCDB method is in that it uses correlations of data series rather than data points. This allows for insights when contemplating swarms of data series and a heuristic examination of whether or not the widely-used hypothesis of path dependency in energy economics – and, more generally, in economic development– is applicable.The author believes that the application of the GCDB method will increase the objectivity of the collected data, enrich the knowledge in the field of «growth theory», expand the knowledge base, and increase the efficiency of public policy related to climate change.
Forsajt. 2018;12(4):46-61
46-61
Assessing the Future of Renewable Energy Consumption for United Kingdom, Turkey and Nigeria
Abstract
The relationship between economic growth and renewable energy (RE) consumption has received enormous attention in the literature. However, there are diverse views about the causality and nature of this relationship. The paper investigates how RE consumption during power generation is affected by economic growth and electricity prices using data from 1990 to 2012. This is conducted by using three case study countries (United Kingdom, Turkey, and Nigeria). Then, a prediction model is developed for the year 2030. The findings in this paper show that RE consumption, for the period under consideration, is significantly determined by income and electricity prices in the long run. These findings support the advantages of government policies encouraging the use of RE by implementing RE markets and RE portfolio standards to not only enhance the security and environmental concerns, but also from a macroeconomic point of view (stable economic growth).
Forsajt. 2018;12(4):62-77
62-77
Limits of Technological Efficiency of Shale Oil Production in the USA
Abstract
The shale oil revolution in the United States had an irreversible impact upon the global oil market and was a key factor determining oil price reduction in 2014-2016. One of the main reasons for the rapid growth of the shale oil production in the US was the development of extracting technologies, which reduced the cost of production to an acceptable level. This article studies the problems of long-term forecasting in shale oil production and the productivity of drilling rigs. This research applies the fitting of an asymmetric bell-shaped function using an OLS approach. This function is derived as an analytical solution of the differential equation for oil production.Another innovation of this study is the asymmetric function, which correlates better with data on the extraction of traditional and non-traditional oil resources. An analysis of the empirical data with the derived asymmetrical bell-shaped curve shows that the productivity of drilling rigs will peak by 2026 at 1,200 bbl per day, which is 2 times higher than the current level. The peak of production would correspond to the maximum oil production of 11.3 mln bbl per day and to technically recoverable resources of 96 bln bbl. This could mean that starting from 2023, the volume of shale oil production in the US may not be enough to meet the growing global demand for oil and other resources with even higher production costs should be developed. The theoretically grounded and practically tested asymmetrical bell-shaped curve can serve as one of the tools for assessing the long-term impact of technological innovation and the growth of equipment productivity upon the development of oil production in the US in the course of Foresight studies.
Forsajt. 2018;12(4):78-89
78-89