Wildfire occurrence in forests of the Altai–Sayan region under current climate changes

Abstract

The dynamics of meteorological parameters in Siberia and the Altai–Sayan region in the 20^th–21^st centuries are analyzed. Significant trends characterizing the dynamics of the average temperature, precipitation, and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) are revealed. Growing wildfire frequency in the area under study since the end of the 20^th century has been detected. The annual variation of wildfires has a phase coincidence with the dynamics of mean temperatures, positively correlates with climate dryness, and negatively correlates with averaged precipitation data. An abrupt increase in wildfire frequency has been observed in the late 20^th–early 21^st centuries. The spatial redistribution of wildfires in the Altai–Sayan region in the early 21^st century is revealed.