Assessing data on mortality from external causes: Case study of the Republic of Bashkortostan

Abstract

The article addresses the poor quality of mortality statistics due to external causes, as figures are understated in Russia and its federal subjects. The actual death rates for homicides, suicides, and alcohol poisonings in the Republic of Bashkortostan have been reviewed based on the suggested models. According to models 1–3, on average, homicide mortality is estimated to be 1.6 times higher for males and 1.4 times higher for females compared to the officially reported data; suicide mortality rates are 1.2 times higher for both genders, while fatal accidental poisonings by alcohol are 1.8 times higher among males and 2.1 times higher among females. Model 4 predicts the gain in homicide mortality to be 3.8 and 3.2 times that for males and females, respectively, and the increase in suicide mortality to be 1.4 times higher for males and 2 times higher for females. Last but not least, mortality from fatal alcohol poisoning is predicted to be 3.0 times and 5.9 times higher than the officially reported rates. The mortality rate from the all so-called external causes is expected to increase by 1.2 times among males and by 1.4 times among females, mainly due to the increase in mortality levels in working-age groups (15–60).