Volume 42, Nº 12 (2017)

The possibility is considered ofusing calculated and satellite data in addition to the results of direct actinometric observations in order to maintain the series of Earth surface radiation budget and to study its spatial variability. The empirical relationships are obtained based on the regression analysis of atmospheric radiation and meteorological parameters using the data of long-term observations in Lomonosov Moscow State University Meteorological Observatory (MSU MO). Satellite data needed to compute the Earth surface radiation budget are compared with the respective data of ground-based observations in MSU MO, and the possibility of using them is assessed.

Ash clouds resulting from explosive volcanic eruptions pose a real threat to human life (for aircraft flights, airport operations, etc.); therefore, the detection, monitoring, and forecast of their movement is an urgent and important issue. The features and examples of application of the new tool developed on the basis of "Monitoring of Active Volcanoes of Kamchatka and the Kurile Islands" information system (VolSatView) are described. It allows the integrated monitoring and forecasting of ash cloud transport using the data of remote sensing and mathematical modeling as well as the assessment of the parameters of explosive events.

The aspects ofthe impact ofcurrent and future (in the middle of the 21st century) climate change on the operational safety and efficiency of traditional energy sources (thermal, nuclear, and hydroelectric power stations) in seven regions of Russia are considered. The climate change projections are provided by the ensemble of the MGO regional climate model with the resolution of 25 km under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. The regions with the highest weather- and climate-related risk for the energy production are identified, and some recommendations on the risk reduction are provided.

Upsurges and downsurges in the Don River mouth are investigated using the observational data of the standard hydrometeorological network. The characteristics ofsurges are determined, andthe catalog of maximum annual dangerous surges is compiled for the observation points in the estuarine offshore zone and mouth reach of the Don River from the beginning of observations till 2014. The series of the maximum annual upsurges and downsurges at marine gaging stations in the Taganrog Bay are formed and statistically processed. The distribution of surges along the Taganrog Bay is analyzed. Catastrophic surges which cause adverse and severe events are identified as well as the qualitative and quaniiiaiive patterns of surge peneiraiion to the Don River mouth. The coefficients of upsurges and downsurges, the intensity of their attenuation, and water levels with the probability of 0.1, 1, and 50% at different river runoff are calculated at all gaging stations in the Don estuary for specific upsurges and downsurges. The results of test computations of surges for the specific point in the Taganrog Bay for 2013-2015 based on the numerical hydrodynamic model of the Sea of Azov are compared with observational data. The possibility was revealed of forecasting downsurges and upsurges based on synoptic conditions over the Sea of Azov with the lead time of three days using hydrodynamic models that allowed developing the prediction scheme of surge transformation calculation.

The regularities ofspatiotemporal distribution ofdrought events in the Republic ofArmenia are revealed. The probability of damage of winter wheat crops caused by the severe and slight drought in different periods of their growth is assessed. The nomogram of chronoisopleths of atmospheric moisture coefficient and the map of distribution of the number of dry ten-day periods are constructed.