Assessment of Modern Changes in Maximum River Flow in Russia

Resumo

The long-term changes in annual maximum flow for the unregulated rivers of the Russian Federation are analyzed using data from 513 Roshydromet gaging stations. The following are evaluated: linear trends in the series of maximum river flow for the period of 1950–2016 and its statistical characteristics (mean values, variance, the number of years with the exceeding of the 10% probability maximum runoff) for two multiyear periods (the modern climate warming and the previous one). As a result, the zoning of the Russian territory is made according to the direction and intensity of modern changes in these parameters. The probability of historical maxima registered for the rivers at the beginning of the 21st century is estimated.