Climate Envelope Models of Kalopanax septemlobus and Phellodendron amurense var. sachalinense in the Insular Part of the Russian Far East

Abstract

The expansion of the range of Kalopanaxseptemlobus and Phellodendronamurense var. sachalinense on Sakhalin Island and the Kuril Islands as a result of global climate changes is studied. Climate envelope models were performed using the maximum entropy method (MaxEnt v. 3.3.3) and WorldClim v. 1.4 data. It is noted that these models predict an increase in the area of habitats with suitable climate conditions for K. septemlobus and P. amurense var. sachalinense by 9.55 and 14.65% of the total area of the region, respectively, by 2050 as a result of the increase in the average annual temperature by 3.9°C in this region (RCP2.6 scenario); according to the radical scenario, the total projected area with suitable conditions will increase by 45.86% for K. septemlobus and 66.24% for P. amurense with a temperature increase by 5.2°C (RCP8.5 scenario).