Local Occurrence of the Relationship between Variations in the Earth’s Rotation Rate and the Dynamics of Seismicity: Case Study of Sakhalin

Аннотация

On the basis of three methods, the current seismic situation in the zone of the Central Sakhalin Fault is assessed and the scenarios of its development are predicted. It is shown that beginning from early 2017 seismic activity considerably increased in comparison with previous years. It is determined that there is a very high probability of occurrence of an earthquake with possible magnitude М_w = 5–6 in the area studied in the period until August–November 2018 (the former date is by the LURR method; the latter, by the SDP method). This forecast continues the series of strong earthquakes in Sakhalin—Onor (August 14, 2016, М_w = 5.8) and Shebunino (April 23, 2017, М_w = 5.3)—which occurred with the onset of the period of deceleration of the Earth’s rotation rate.