Technology development phases, as exemplified by the evolution of aircraft power plants
- Autores: Kuzmin Y.V.1
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Afiliações:
- S. I. Vavilov Institute for the History of Science and Technology, Russian Academy of Sciences
- Edição: Volume 45, Nº 1 (2024)
- Páginas: 58-78
- Seção: From the History of Technology
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/0205-9606/article/view/257158
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S0205960624010033
- ID: 257158
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Acesso está concedido
Resumo
Several hypotheses concerning technology development patterns were tested on the dataset, prepared by the author. This dataset includes the data regarding dynamics of changes in airplane power plants used both in airplane production in the 20ʰᵗ century and in the development of new airplane models, the design features of 20,250 20th-century airplane models, and 39,000 records describing the production of these models. Five classes of airplanes were selected for analysis: two civil (passenger and general-purpose aircrafts) and three military (fighters, bombers, and attack aircrafts) classes.
According to the first hypothesis, the development of civil technologies goes through two different phases. During the first phase, a succession of technical solutions (in our case, the types of most widely used airplane engines) occurs, indicating a displacing competition. At a certain moment, however, this competition gives way to coexistence, in which each solution that has “survived” up to this moment retains its share in production for a long time. In the military sector, the technological arms race never stops and the stage of coexistence does not occur, which comprises the second hypothesis.
According to the third hypothesis, the development of designs using outdated methodology continues even after the new generation practically displaces the previous one from production. This behavior is typical for the engineering community and repeats time after time in both the civil and military sectors.
Finally, the fourth hypothesis states that, as technology develops, a product usually undergoes two periods: complication, which is accompanied by a rapid increase in quantitative characteristics and followed by simplification of operation and maintenance. This trend manifests, among other things, as a reduction in the number of main units in the product. In our case, this means a reduction in the number of engines installed on heavy airplanes.
It is shown that the collected data confirm the previously stated hypotheses.
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Sobre autores
Yurii Kuzmin
S. I. Vavilov Institute for the History of Science and Technology, Russian Academy of Sciences
Autor responsável pela correspondência
Email: kuzmin@ihst.ru
Rússia, str. Baltiyskaya, 14, Moscow, 125315
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