卷 64, 编号 10 (2017)

A scenario-based prognosis of the evolution of global power generation markets until 2040, which was developed using the Scaner model-and-information complex, was given. The perspective development of fuel markets, vital for the power generation industry, was considered, and an attempt to predict the demand, production, and prices of oil, gas, coal, and noncarbon resources across various regions of the world was made. The anticipated decline in the growth of the global demand for fossil fuels and their sufficiency with relatively low extraction expenses will maintain the fuel prices (the data hereinafter are given as per 2014 prices) lower than their peak values in 2012. The outrunning growth of demand for electric power is shown in comparison with other power resources by regions and large countries in the world. The conditions of interfuel competition in the electric power industry considering the changes in anticipated fuel prices and cost indicators for various power generation technologies were studied. For this purpose, the ratios of discounted costs of electric power production by new gas and coal TPPs and wind and solar power plants were estimated. It was proven that accounting the system effects (operation modes, necessary duplicating and reserving the power of electric power plants using renewable energy sources) notably reduces the competitiveness of the renewable power industry and is not always compensated by the expected lowering of its capital intensity and growth of fuel for TPPs. However, even with a moderate (in relation to other prognoses) growth of the role of power plants using renewable energy sources, they will triple electric power production. In this context, thermal power plants will preserve their leadership covering up to 60% of the global electric power production, approximately half using gas.

In recent years in most power systems all over the world, a trend towards the growing nonuniformity of energy consumption and generation schedules has been observed. The increase in the portion of renewable energy sources is one of the important challenges for many countries. The ill-predictable character of such energy sources necessitates a search for practical solutions. Presently, the most efficient method for compensating for nonuniform generation of the electric power by the renewable energy sources—predominantly by the wind and solar energy—is generation of power at conventional fossil-fuel-fired power stations. In Russia, this problem is caused by the increasing portion in the generating capacity structure of the nuclear power stations, which are most efficient when operating under basic conditions. Introduction of hydropower and pumped storage hydroelectric power plants and other energy-storage technologies does not cover the demand for load-following power capacities. Owing to a simple design, low construction costs, and a sufficiently high economic efficiency, gas turbine plants (GTPs) prove to be the most suitable for covering the nonuniform electric-demand schedules. However, when the gas turbines are operated under varying duty conditions, the lifetime of the primary thermostressed components is considerably reduced and, consequently, the repair costs increase. A method is proposed for determination of the total operating costs considering the deterioration of the gas turbine equipment under varying duty and start–stop conditions. A methodology for optimization of the loading modes for the gas turbine equipment is developed. The consideration of the lifetime component allows varying the optimal operating conditions and, in some cases, rejecting short-time stops of the gas turbine plants. The calculations performed in a wide range of varying fuel prices and capital investments per gas turbine equipment unit show that the economic effectiveness can be increased by 5–15% by varying the operating conditions and switching to the optimal operating modes. Consequently, irrespective of the fuel price, the application of the proposed method results in selection of the most beneficial operating conditions. Consideration of the lifetime expenditure included in the optimization criterion enables enhancement of the operating efficiency.

The current state of the market of conventional and torrefied wood pellets and the trends of its development have been analyzed. The advantages and disadvantages of pellets of both types have been compared with other alternative fuels. The consumer segment in which wood pellets are the most competitive has been determined. The original torrefaction technology using exhaust gas heat from a standard gas engine that was developed at the Joint Institute for High Technologies and the scheme of an experimental unit for the elaboration of the technology have been presented. The scheme of the combined operation of a torrefaction unit and a standard hot water boiler, which makes it possible to utilize the heat of exhaust steam-and-gas products of torrefaction with the simultaneous prevention of emissions of harmful substances into the environment, has been proposed. The required correlation between the capacity of the torrefaction unit and the heating boiler house has been estimated for optimal operation under the conditions of the isolated urban village in a region that is distant from the areas of extraction of traditional fuels and, at the same time, has quite sufficient resources of raw materials for the production of wood pellets.

According to Federal Law no. 219-FZ, dated July 21, 2014, all enterprises that have a significant negative impact on the environment shall continuously monitor and account emissions of harmful substances into the atmospheric air. The choice of measuring equipment that is included in continuous emission monitoring and accounting systems (CEM&ASs) is a complex technical problem; in particular, its solution requires a comparative analysis of gas analysis systems; each of these systems has its advantages and disadvantages. In addition, the choice of gas analysis systems for CEM&ASs should be maximally objective and not depend on preferences of separate experts and specialists. The technique of choosing gas analysis equipment that was developed in previous years at Moscow Power Engineering Institute (MPEI) has been analyzed and the applicability of the mathematical tool of a multiple criteria analysis to choose measuring equipment for the continuous emission monitoring and accounting system have been estimated. New approaches to the optimal choice of gas analysis equipment for systems of the continuous monitoring and accounting of harmful emissions from thermal power plants have been proposed, new criteria of evaluation of gas analysis systems have been introduced, and weight coefficients have been determined for these criteria. The results of this study served as a basis for the Preliminary National Standard of the Russian Federation “Best Available Technologies. Automated Systems of Continuous Monitoring and Accounting of Emissions of Harmful (Polluting) Substances from Thermal Power Plants into the Atmospheric Air. Basic Requirements,” which was developed by the Moscow Power Engineering Institute, National Research University, in cooperation with the Council of Power Producers and Strategic Electric Power Investors Association and the All-Russia Research Institute for Materials and Technology Standardization.

Russian experience in the production of large-sized cast blades and vanes for industrial gas turbines is analyzed for the past decades. It is noted that the production of small- and medium-sized blades and vanes made of Russian alloys using technologies for aviation, marine, and gas-pumping turbines cannot be scaled for industrial gas turbines. It is shown that, in order to provide manufacturability under large-scale casting from domestic nickel alloys, it is necessary to solve complex problems in changing their chemical composition, to develop new casting technologies and to optimize the heat treatment modes. An experience of PAO NPO Saturn in manufacturing the blades and vanes made of ChS88U-VI and IN738-LC foundry nickel alloys for the turbines of the GTE-110 gas turbine unit is considered in detail. Potentialities for achieving adopted target parameters for the mechanical properties of working blades cast from ChS88UM-VI modified alloy are established. For the blades made of IN738-LC alloy manufactured using the existing foundry technology, a complete compliance with the requirements of normative and technical documentation has been established. Currently, in Russia, the basis of the fleet of gas turbine plants is composed by foreign turbines, and, for the implementation of the import substitution program, one can use the positive experience of PAO NPO Saturn in casting blades from IN738-LC alloy based on a reverse engineering technique. A preliminary complex of studies of the original manufacturer’s blades should be carried out, involving, first of all, the determination of geometric size using modern measurement methods as well as the studies on the chemical compositions of the used materials (base metal and protective coatings). Further, verifying the constructed calculation models based on the obtained data, one could choose available domestic materials that would meet the operating conditions of the blades according to their heat resistance and corrosion resistance.

Experiments with impulse gas injection into model coolants, such as water or the Rose alloy, performed at the Novosibirsk Branch of the Nuclear Safety Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, are described. The test facility and the experimental conditions are presented in details. The dependence of coolant pressure on the injected gas flow and the time of injection was determined. The purpose of these experiments was to verify the physical models of thermohydraulic codes for calculation of the processes that could occur during the rupture of tubes of a steam generator with heavy liquid metal coolant or during fuel rod failure in water-cooled reactors. The experimental results were used for verification of the HYDRA-IBRAE/LM system thermohydraulic code developed at the Nuclear Safety Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences. The models of gas bubble transportation in a vertical channel that are used in the code are described in detail. A two-phase flow pattern diagram and correlations for prediction of friction of bubbles and slugs as they float up in a vertical channel and of two-phase flow friction factor are presented. Based on the results of simulation of these experiments using the HYDRA-IBRAE/LM code, the arithmetic mean error in predicted pressures was calculated, and the predictions were analyzed considering the uncertainty in the input data, geometry of the test facility, and the error of the empirical correlation. The analysis revealed major factors having a considerable effect on the predictions. The recommendations are given on updating of the experimental results and improvement of the models used in the thermohydraulic code.

When designing large-scale water-treatment plants based on reverse-osmosis systems, it is proposed to conduct experimental-industrial or pilot tests for validated simulation of the operation of the equipment. It is shown that such tests allow establishing efficient operating conditions and characteristics of the plant under design. It is proposed to conduct pilot tests of the reverse-osmosis systems on pilot membrane plants (PMPs) and test membrane plants (TMPs). The results of a comparative experimental study of pilot and test membrane plants are exemplified by simulating the operating parameters of the membrane elements of an industrial plant. It is concluded that the reliability of the data obtained on the TMP may not be sufficient to design industrial water-treatment plants, while the PMPs are capable of providing reliable data that can be used for full-scale simulation of the operation of industrial reverse-osmosis systems. The test membrane plants allow simulation of the operating conditions of individual industrial plant systems; therefore, potential areas of their application are shown. A method for numerical calculation and experimental determination of the true selectivity and the salt passage are proposed. An expression has been derived that describes the functional dependence between the observed and true salt passage. The results of the experiments conducted on a test membrane plant to determine the true value of the salt passage of a reverse-osmosis membrane are exemplified by magnesium sulfate solution at different initial operating parameters. It is shown that the initial content of a particular solution component has a significant effect on the change in the true salt passage of the membrane.