Comprehensive Assessment of Russia’s Electric Power Industry’s Technological Transformation

The article discusses the possibilities for and results of structural changes in the electric power industry of Russia, which performs the integrating function for the country’s fuel and energy complex during its transformation in the context of various scenarios supposed for the world’s technological transition to the use of noncarbon energy in the period up to 2040. The optimal lines of technological progress and its acceleration rates in the industry, which ensure full replacement of the existing capacities of gas- and then also coal-fired power plants by new types of equipment, as well as noticeable increase in the share of noncarbon (nuclear and renewable) sources, are investigated. The effect that the choice of a more energy-efficient and diversified structure of generating capacities has on the consumption of energy resources and also on the direct and indirect effects for the national economy of Russia is estimated. For estimating the consequences from structural transformation of the electric power industry, the integral energy and economic characteristics of the conservative and innovative scenarios of its development are calculated. Based on these characteristics, a system of indicators for comprehensively estimating the industry’s development scenarios is proposed that reflect the extent of its technological renovation, energy efficiency, energy balance diversification, price load, and budgetary effectiveness. The results of applying the proposed system of indicators confirmed the advantages of the electric power industry’s innovative-development scenario. The following two strategic objectives can simultaneously be solved within the framework of this scenario in the period up to 2040. First, it will be possible to overcome the long-lasting technological backwardness of the domestic thermal power industry and reach the level of best technologies in gas- and coal-fired power generation. Second, it will be possible to ensure a very rapid growth in the scales of using noncarbon technologies (nuclear and renewable energy), thus setting up a background for achieving a situation in which they would account for up to half the electricity production by the mid 21st century. It is shown that the acceleration of technological progress in the electric power industry will compensate one-third of the losses in Russia’s economy due to decreased export of fuel when a shift is made around the world to noncarbon energy.