A Statistical Analysis of Cyclical Changes in the Time Series of Meteorological Parameters in the Southwest of the Valdai Hills

Аннотация

A statistical analysis of periodic and cyclical components of time series of meteorological parameters was conducted for the 40-year observation period in the southwest of the Valdai Hills by classic seasonal decomposition and Fourier analysis. The dependence of the obtained OLS estimates of linear-regression models of meteorological parameters on a length of the smoothing interval was analyzed. Cyclical fluctuations in the time series of temperature with periods of 8 and 3 years and those of rainfall with periods of 3.5 and 10.5 years were detected and analyzed.